Depending on people’s positions in the political sphere, there are always villains present. In the United Kingdom, there is currently almost universal consensus about the current resident at number 10. The fact that a fan of Castro and Chávez sits on the opposite side of the aisle demonstrates how degraded politics can become, even in highly advanced democracies. What hope then, for a banana republic like Venezuela?
Venezuela has two concurrent presidents, one “usurper” and another “self-proclaimed.” The usurper controls what matters to stay in power (the military, money); the self-proclaimed has the support of over 50 Western democracies. The usurper was sworn in before the Supreme Court, breaking the constitution, while the self-proclaimed did it in the streets. In the usurper’s corner are China, Russia, Turkey, probably India, Colombian narcoterrorist organizations, and a plethora of criminal gangs. In the self-proclaimed’s corner are the U.S., directing the chaotic show, however, getting into a proper fight against the usurper’s allies isn’t even a consideration.
It’s said that a handful of American hawks, pushing a last-minute agenda, hope for a successful outcome, meaning the usurper simply resigns power. The agenda of the self-proclaimed is: 1) end of usurpation; 2) formation of a transitional government; 3) free elections. No one, anywhere, has presented a halfway decent plan on how/when step 1 will take place. Step 1 cannot be imposed on the usurper, as none of the international supporters of the self-proclaimed have any appetite for using force.
Thus, the first step exists in a timeless and unenforceable void, making it little more than a chimera. Therefore, the “end of usurpation” by Nicolás Maduro seems even less likely than Theresa May’s unilateral withdrawal of Article 50 by the United Kingdom.
Meanwhile, many of those responsible for leading Venezuela to its current situation present themselves as honest mediators. Take Rafael Ramírez for example, a man who went from being Minister of Energy and CEO of PDVSA to a blogger. Ramírez is directly accountable for much of the corruption that caused Venezuela’s current humanitarian crisis. During his 12 years at the helm of PDVSA, Ramírez managed over $1.3 trillion in revenue and had almost absolute discretion in awarding billion-dollar procurement contracts to his friends. It goes without saying that all those billions are gone with little to show for it. The latest spectacle is a national blackout lasting nearly a week, costing many lives. What was Ramírez’s reaction? He ordered his community manager to write a blog post, in English (?), about the usurper’s responsibility for the destruction, among other things, of PDVSA.
This is like hearing Nigel Farage blaming Theresa May for Brexit.
The self-proclaimed is surrounded by people who made many corrupt deals with Ramírez, stealing public funds and enriching themselves obscenely in the process. This group is already planning the “reconstruction” of Venezuela, where opportunities for phenomenal corruption will abound. When it comes to messy political shows, Venezuela can boast a dominant edge in the major leagues. The more the self-proclaimed pretends everything is going according to plan, the more it resembles the old mercantilist system of patronage.
Unlike the EU with Brexit, the U.S. has the enviable position of being able to unilaterally enact measures that could break the current stalemate. This should begin by implementing a much more aggressive sanctions regime specifically targeting the usual Russian suspects. It should follow with the network of enabler and facilitator banks worldwide, as FinCEN once did with Banca Privada D’Andorra. The U.S. Department of Justice should unleash energy traders like Trafigura, Glencore, Reliance, Vitol, and Lukoil, since none of them pass the smell test when it comes to dealings with Venezuela.
Instead of waiting foolishly, the U.S. government could do much more to restore stability to Venezuela and the surrounding region. This isn’t a replica of the Cold War, and given its weight in this matter, U.S. officials should also carefully consider the type of partners they choose as travel companions to avoid a triumphant return of chavismo in five years.