Election results in Venezuela may be the only common ground between the government and the opposition. The results from the other day have been interpreted by both sides in a way that makes them look good. Some say, “We’ve increased our lead compared to the presidential election!” while others counter, “We defeated chavismo in Barinas!” the capital of the same-named state that saw the rise of the caudillo Hugo Chávez, where his family is nothing less than the most recent monarchy in the Americas.
The saddest part, in the opinion of the writer, is that despite calls for dialogue, which won’t produce any tangible results, Venezuela remains split in two. It is still as divided as ever. The worst part is that the timid “advances” boasted of by the opposition will not translate into substantive and significant changes in quality of life for voters, as all newly elected officials will have to go to the same place, namely the central government, to beg for resources and budgets to carry out their new duties.
The most crucial thing, which is the money to govern, is secured for chavistas. And what about the opposition? For them, the Maduro administration has prepared an administrative formula called “Programa,” whose foremost objectives are to “Guarantee the continuity and consolidation of the Bolivarian Revolution in power.” Maduro also wields the power to govern by decree. He left nothing to electoral chance. Both his new plan and the authority to govern as he pleases were established before the election on Sunday, in case the electoral results turned against him.
But returning to the results, how can we have hopes that things will improve? What guarantee is there that Maduro, who inherited control and made it nearly absolute, won’t repeat measures like those taken by Hugo Chávez against elected authorities (remember Antonio Ledezma)? Will the relationship between chavismo and Ledezma, who has repeated victory in the Metropolitan Mayor’s office of Caracas, change? It doesn’t seem to be the case.
Chavismo continues to claim to be the “option of the majority” in rural Venezuela, where over 7 million voters reside—people whose existence is questionable and who live where the electoral registry, which hasn’t been audited since 2005, says they live. Until the electoral mess in Venezuela is resolved, those who see elections as the only way to choose a different government will remain in limbo. We still can’t explain how an administration that openly promotes plundering remains the majority. On the other hand, the opposition leadership seems content to gain positions in councils, mayoralties, and mostly urban districts. However, those victories are not without issues and have not altered the real balance of power. A prime example is the National Assembly, which has granted special powers to Maduro, despite the opposition securing more votes but fewer congressional seats.
And thus the question: Quo Vadis Venezuela?
The chavistas remain in control and will continue to shape the future according to the need to “guarantee continuity and consolidation in power.” The Maduro regime continues to abuse its position with absolute boldness and impunity to ensure its stay in power, while the electoral authorities say nothing about it. If we add to the prospect of no elections until the end of 2015 the results from yesterday and the power consolidated in Maduro’s hands, it’s clear that things do not look promising for the opposition. There have been several electoral defeats, and the correlation of forces remains basically the same—whether or not Chávez is on the scene. The inability to capitalize electorally on the disaster that was Maduro’s brief administration speaks volumes of an opposition leadership that is in dire and urgent need of renewal. They need to stop looking at their own belly for a while and begin the arduous path toward the real recovery of political spaces. However, this path cannot be taken without overcoming the first obstacle, which is the reliability and impartiality of the electoral system itself.