Without a doubt, the first hundred days of Donald Trump’s presidency have been marked by a considerable increase in presidential authority during this second term of the Republican leader.
This is indicated in a report by S&P Global, which analyzes the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second administration that began on January 20, 2025. This view is backed by analysts John Raines, Ben Herzon, and Jeffery McElroy, who authored the report.
The report emphasizes the immigration, trade, and foreign affairs policies implemented by Trump during this initial phase, while highlighting the expansion of the executive power in the U.S. through unprecedented orders and dismissals of officials.
The analysis also looks into the economic impact of Trump’s policies, including the potential recessions they may create, as well as the response from trading partners like China.
Raines, Herzon, and McElroy address the implications of the “America First” policy on foreign affairs, alongside the expected rise in protests and political violence during this time.
Unprecedented Increase in Presidential Power
The S&P Global report begins with the blunt assertion that “Trump has increased presidential authority in an unprecedented manner in recent history.” This claim is made due to the president’s implementation of executive orders that challenge existing laws or congressional spending power.
As an example, the analysts refer to an executive order warning law firms of sanctions if they “engage in frivolous, unreasonable, and derogatory litigation against the United States.” Such a measure led some firms to establish agreements with the government, while others chose to seek protective orders in court.
Additionally, Trump dismissed numerous heads of independent executive agencies as well as inspectors general—who are nominally protected by law—and paused funding for social assistance and international development programs. This action has led to court orders demanding the restoration of foreign aid spending. The president has also turned to the courts, arguing that funding should remain suspended for other legal reasons.
It is estimated that, due to the various legal actions, the Supreme Court will have the final say, but the conservative majority of 6-3 is likely to back Trump, particularly regarding his authority to dismiss executive personnel.
Strict Immigration Policies
Similarly, the immigration policies enacted by Donald Trump have resulted in “significant reductions in immigrant crossings.” Since his arrival at the White House, the president issued emergency declarations to improve coordination among agencies, including the military and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
Trump also designated Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, which facilitates their prosecution.
The emergency declaration has allowed the creation of detention centers for immigrants without permanent legal status, with detentions and deportations permitted for those unable to prove residence in the U.S. for more than two years. Encounter rates with incoming immigrants reached a historic low of 8,500 in February 2025, marking “the lowest number since at least 1967.”
Although Donald Trump has not yet initiated mass deportations, it is believed that if campaign promises to significantly increase them are fulfilled, absenteeism in sectors reliant on these workers, like construction, health, agriculture, and food processing, will rise.
Volatile Trade Policy with a Tendency to Moderate
S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts moderate growth in 2025 during this administration of Donald Trump.
It is likely that Trump will adopt a more moderate stance on trade policy in the coming months due to the shift in reciprocal policy, although new protectionist measures cannot be ruled out.
In response to the situation, a temporary suspension of “reciprocal” tariffs announced previously for 90 days went into effect, while general tariffs to mainland China increased to 125%. High tariffs remain on four designated sectors and for Canada and Mexico, alongside a flat 10% tariff aimed at generating revenue. New tariffs were announced in the pharmaceutical sector.
The change in policy is believed to have arisen from discussions with congressional Republicans and “dislocations in U.S. bond markets.” The president may have been warned of higher borrowing costs for the government, as well as significant volatility that indicates a growing risk of financial issues.
The Trump administration has expressed willingness to make case-by-case adjustments and seek bilateral trade agreements. It appears that major supporters of tariffs, like advisor Peter Navarro, have lost ground within the government, while officials with more limited goals, such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have gained influence.
It is expected that the U.S. will reconsider some tariffs on mainland China due to their impact on supply chains and the risk of increased inflation. China will continue to publicly oppose U.S. tariffs but will remain open to dialogue.
In this sense, if progress is made in negotiations, China may offer reciprocal tariff reductions, large-scale purchases of agricultural and energy products, and greater market access for U.S. companies, though it will resist more burdensome demands.
Reaching a pause on tariffs before August 2025 is considered vital to avoid disrupting the holiday shopping season.
Challenges in the Legislative Agenda
The report highlights that the Republican majority in Congress’s attempts to pass new tax and fiscal legislation within the first hundred days of Donald Trump’s presidency have stalled. Legislation is expected to pass in the third quarter of 2025.
It is also anticipated that Trump will manage to extend most of the 2017 tax cuts through budget reconciliation—only a simple majority is needed in Congress for this—but this may be delayed given the ideological divisions within the Republican Party.
Economic Outlook of Moderate Growth
There is a division among forecasters—alerts the report—regarding expectations of a recession in the second half of 2025, which some estimate, while others envision continuous growth.
For its part, S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts moderate growth below potential in 2025 (1.3%), followed by 1.5% in 2026 and 2027. These projections are weaker than the previous month’s forecast.
Among the factors believed to contribute to the moderate growth are:
recent declines in stock values;
ongoing federal layoffs;
weakness in capital expenditure due to trade uncertainty;
higher tariffs.
The downward revision of growth reflects reduced momentum in the first quarter and the consequences of tariffs announced by Trump.
“America First” Foreign Policy
Donald Trump is implementing the “America First” principle, asserting that other countries have taken advantage of U.S. generosity.
In this regard, one of the first executive orders was a 90-day suspension of foreign aid—subsequent exceptions were made—leading to risks in contract payments for affected countries.
The Trump administration is pursuing a more unilateral foreign policy, less constrained by traditional security policies and alliances. For instance, he complained about high rates at the Panama Canal and demanded their reduction, hinting at a potential U.S. takeover.
In the case of Panama, concessions have already been made, and it is believed that with respect to Greenland, there may be pressure for a referendum on independence that could result in a free association pact with the U.S. While this is considered a negotiation tactic, military intervention is not completely ruled out.
The report warns that the “America First” policy does not imply isolationism but rather a focus on U.S. interests outside existing alliance structures.
Trump will insist that U.S. allies increase their defense spending and, while NATO withdrawal is unlikely, the financial and physical commitments of the United States to the organization have already begun to diminish.
Common ground is expected in Ukraine, a country being pressured by the U.S. to accept a ceasefire, with aid and intelligence conditioned on future rights to mineral resources in Ukraine.
There are also likely to be tougher policies towards Cuba and Venezuela. Tariffs will be favored as an economic punitive tool, although the use of sanctions will probably continue.
Increase in Political Polarization and Protest Risks
The report indicates that there may be an increase in political violence related to the 2026 elections. The risks of protests and terrorism are likely to rise in 2025, similar to what occurred after Trump’s election in 2016.
Increased risks of terrorist acts by self-radicalized actors are anticipated, as well as episodes of civil unrest featuring vandalism and clashes with police, particularly in central areas.
Isolated incidents of looting and arson in urban centers are also foreseen.