President Donald J. Trump has announced a series of economic and security measures against Venezuela, highlighting the imposition of a secondary tariff of 25% on any country that purchases Venezuelan oil or gas. Furthermore, he has accused the regime of Nicolás Maduro of intentionally sending dangerous criminals to U.S. territory, including members of the criminal gang Tren de Aragua, which is now designated as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization.” These measures represent an escalation in tensions between both countries and create uncertainty in international hydrocarbon trade.
Trump has cited three main reasons to justify these actions:
Sending Criminals: According to the president, the Maduro regime has allowed the infiltration of “tens of thousands of high-level criminals” into the United States, some of whom are murderers and members of international criminal networks.
Tren de Aragua: The presence of this criminal organization on U.S. soil has raised concerns for security agencies. The designation of Tren de Aragua as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” implies a higher level of legal pursuit and coordination among federal and international agencies for its dismantling.
Hostility of Venezuela towards the U.S.: Trump believes the Maduro regime maintains an openly adversarial stance towards the United States and its democratic principles, which justifies the implementation of harsher sanctions.
Consequences of the Secondary Tariff
The secondary tariff of 25% will come into effect on April 2, 2025, a date Trump has called “Liberation Day for the United States.” The measure stipulates that any nation trading with Venezuela in the energy sector will have to pay an additional tax on their trade with the United States.
Impact on Countries Buying Venezuelan Oil
Increased Costs: Countries that choose to continue purchasing Venezuelan oil will face a significant rise in their import costs due to the tariff.
Reduction of Trade with Venezuela: Affected nations may seek alternative sources of crude oil to avoid the extra cost, thereby decreasing the demand for Venezuelan oil in the global market.
Diplomatic Tensions: Governments that have traditionally maintained trade relations with Venezuela, such as China, India, and some European countries, may be forced to reconsider their stance under pressure from Washington.
Consequences for Venezuela
Additional Economic Difficulties: Venezuela’s dependence on oil exports as its main source of income could worsen if buyers reduce or eliminate their imports.
International Isolation: With stricter trade restrictions, Venezuela may become more reliant on allies like Russia and Iran to keep its oil industry operational.
Increased Humanitarian Crisis: The reduction of income and economic pressure could worsen living conditions for the Venezuelan population, prompting a new wave of migration.