Recently, there’s been a lot of talk about the transition in Venezuela, as the term of Nicolás Maduro ends on January 10, 2019. Most observers have long recognized the need to replace the chavista model, ideally with some form of a viable government system controlled by the opposition. This could implement immediate changes in the economy, which, considering the amount of oil reserves that Venezuela claims to have, would turn the country into a hub for foreign direct investment. Capitalism could work its magic through the influx of FDI and then, voilà, Venezuelans would return to enjoying living standards like those in the 70s. This premise is, like most things related to Venezuela today, absolutely unfeasible.
Let’s start with geopolitics. Donald Trump is desperately trying to save his own neck. It must be said that his administration has been quite chaotic, featuring a high turnover of critical decision-makers. When it comes to foreign policy, Venezuela serves merely as a convenient scarecrow for campaign manifestos and rallies. The reality is that the Trump administration cares more about itself than anything else. The little attention given to foreign policy is, as usual, focused on the Middle East and North Korea.
Vlad Putin, on the other hand, is not very pleased. He regrets having been dragged into the muck of chavismo. Due to billions from arms sales and oil-related loans, Putin knows that Maduro is favoring China in oil deliveries, which is the only way left to meet financial obligations. While photographs are still permissible and outdated Tupolev bombers are sent to Caracas, the reality is that beyond the propaganda, Putin is not willing to engage in a power struggle akin to Syria just two and a half hours from Miami. More money will not materialize until Maduro accelerates capital repayment.
Xi Jinping is, as usual, the only one playing the long game. He is not bothered at all by the chavista mess and continues to apply pressure on Maduro and his crew silently, “harvesting” the benefits. Oil deliveries confirm this. As with Putin, no new funds or loans will be committed, and previously agreed deals, like that refinery in Guangdong, will tilt the balance even further away from U.S.-based facilities.
Erdogan has just made an entry. While some grand announcements were made, it remains to be seen how much will actually be executed. Gold production in Venezuela is a matter of two pence, compared to the energy business. Turkish Petroleum is set to inherit some concessions granted to local operators, though again, it’s too early to accurately quantify the trade balance.
In all of the above, there is no room for the opposition. It could not be more irrelevant. It lacks real political power, has been completely incapable of using the congressional majority for anything politically significant, and has spectacularly failed to significantly reduce chavismo—it’s truly the epitome of insignificance. Many of its self-proclaimed leaders rely almost entirely on the patronage of Boligarchs, while others—like Henrique Capriles Radonsky—have documented evidence of accepting money from Odebrecht. Chavismo has every number at its disposal and uses that influence very effectively. Whenever the opposition calls for dialogue or coexistence with the chavista criminal organization, the question should be: what dirt do they have on this person?
So, what about transition? It’s not possible, not to anything other than another form of chavismo. It could be any number of puppets: Henri Falcón and his “economic guru,” could be Henry Ramos Allup, or Henrique Capriles Radonsky, Omar Barboza, Manuel Rosales, Julio Borges, or any other representative like Timoteo Zambrano. That, however, won’t change anything. The military will continue to command, trafficking drugs and living large. No one in the opposition can do anything to stop that. Chavismo will not relinquish power, nor will it control PDVSA or the Central Bank. And everything will remain as always for the Boligarchs.
In such a scenario, lacking political, military, and financial strength, how will the opposition become a valid interlocutor at the table? Maduro’s term ends in less than a month. Has anyone seen him fight? Sources report that secret talks are underway, seeking to maintain the status quo. Whatever comes of this, it is clear to us that the future of Venezuela is firmly in the hands of chavismo.
The entry Is there a Transition in Venezuela? No Possibility. was first published on El Faro del Morro.