The results of the latest Colombia Risk Map 2025 indicate that Colombians perceive an increase in insecurity, primarily due to the actions of Organized Armed Groups (GAOs) that have consolidated over the past two years.
Colombians see a rise in insecurity attributed to guerrilla and organized crime groups, which control territories and conduct military operations in Colombia, becoming the most expansive groups nationally and regionally. The survey revealed that among these organizations, the Gulf Clan (AGC), Central General Staff (EMC), Second Marquetalia (SM), National Liberation Army (ELN), along with organized crime groups, significantly contributed to the increase in insecurity.
The Risk Map is an analytical tool developed by the Colombian security company 3 Security Col (3+SC), which, through its Political and Corporate Security Analysis Unit, presents its clients with an overview of the security situation in the nation.
Security Perspectives for 2025
The Risk Map is an analytical tool developed by the Colombian security company 3 Security Col (3+SC).
The study established that since extortion has become the preferred source of funding for crime and GAOs have experienced processes of expansion and consolidation over the past two years, it is likely that the upward trend will continue into 2025, as strategies to mitigate insecurity remain the same.
The survey reports that Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga have emerged as crime hotspots, although it notes that expressions of insecurity and violence in urban areas differ significantly from those in rural regions.
It is expected that the fragmentation of GAOs will lead to more localized and focused violence, and the elimination of members from rival factions could trigger an escalation of confrontations that severely affect the civilian population.
Furthermore, the study’s conclusions warn that the competition for control among criminal groups “could create a climate of greater instability in the affected regions, leading to increased violence and growing challenges in reaching peace agreements, as factions will continue to seek to strengthen their internal power and operational capacity.”
Increase in Coca Cultivation
This year, it is also expected that coca cultivation will rise, as has been the trend in recent years, given that government strategies to combat the growth of armed actors remain unchanged.
The global fight against drugs has not yielded the expected results due to the lack of a comprehensive and effective plan to assist vulnerable individuals involved in the drug trafficking chain.
It is noted that because the multiple factors explaining massacres remain unresolved, the issue is expected to persist into 2025, “although it is also likely that the slight downward trend may continue.”
Decrease in Displacements
The study indicates that the 22% reduction in displacements in 2024 could suggest improvements in the operational capacity of the public force and state institutions in preventing such events. However, it is warned that the growth of GAOs could reverse this situation.
It is highlighted that the Colombian Pacific region stands out as the area with the highest levels of insecurity and violence in the country, being the only region where all departments are categorized as high-risk zones: Cauca, Valle del Cauca, Chocó, and Nariño.
The region’s history as a stronghold of crime, where violence has intensified over the last three years, makes it unlikely for security improvements to occur in the short and medium term.
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