London – In 2007, the late leader (thank goodness!) lost the constitutional amendment elections. Analysts at that time attributed this defeat to the activism of the emerging student movement, which organized numerous demonstrations and protests primarily due to the closure of RCTV. Experts concluded that this was the key factor in the first official defeat suffered by Chavez. Since I don’t live in an enviroment where taking credit for this or that act is the preferred pastime, I rejected this notion, based on what I believe to be a dispassionate analysis of the situation and on numbers.
The amendment proposed by Chavez, discussed here by several colleagues, was an assault on the Chavista status quo. If the proposed amendment had been approved, it would have stripped all power from the Chavistas, who already had some executive power, concentrating even more in the hands of Chavez. He could have reorganized the country’s geopolitical division, named or removed anyone, regardless of whether they were elected or not, and placed the Bolivarian military (directly dependent on orders from Chavez) on the same hierarchical and executive level as the armed forces. In short, he wanted to declare himself emperor. What happened then? Three million Chavistas stayed home. On that Sunday, December 2, 2007, three million Chavistas did not vote for their god. Why? Because of the students and their marches? Don’t make me laugh. They didn’t go out to vote because the Chavista voter mobilization machinery didn’t activate that day. And why did it not activate, given how crucial the amendment was for the coup leader? For a very simple reason: they saw their jobs, futures, and access to public funds—in other words, the end of the spoils—at risk. Chavez’s amendment was against all established power, except his own. And that’s why, and only why, he lost.
We must now analyze the circumstances surrounding the election on April 14. With several days to go, I’m not afraid to assert that Capriles will lose—and badly. Why do I say this? For the same reason Chavez lost in 2007. Those who saw their future at risk back then must be thinking now: “If I don’t vote for Maduro, my gravy train is finished.” Beyond the emotions Chavistas may feel due to the death of their leader, which are valid, the status quo needs to stay in power to continue the Chavista project. This time, many livelihoods are on the line, and the income of millions, from both sides, is at stake. This time, the voter mobilization machinery will function like never before. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Maduro receives more votes on April 14 than Chavez did on October 7, as the motivation, aside from sentimental reasons, is financial and personal.
No matter how much Capriles claims he will maintain the missions, that doesn’t resonate with Chavistas. No matter how much he promises to improve this or that, the reality is that in the Chavista universe, no one believes him. Those who had shown political apathy but collected money from various missions will vote this time, knowing that if they don’t, they could lose their state benefits. The vote won’t be for Maduro; it will be for the continuation of populism and cash handouts; it’s ultimately a vote for the continuation of Chavez’s governing style. The vote isn’t Chavez against Capriles; it’s Capriles against what Chavez represented: the missions, pensions, against free appliances, against housing, against the absolute anarchy promoted over 14 years by Chavez, against the rampant drug trafficking among the highest echelons of Chavismo, against the pranes. I won’t say Capriles against corruption since he also has some questions to answer, for example, regarding his relationships with individuals like the Castillo Bozo family, but that’s a matter for another time. Thus, it’s Capriles against the prevailing chaos; Capriles against Chavismo, in a country like Venezuela? Against that, Capriles has no chance now or ever.
Maduro will win, hands down; I have no doubt about it. He must win, so that sooner rather than later, the Chavistas, unlike their leader, truly face the consequences of their actions.