Leopoldo López, one of the two most promising leaders of the Venezuelan opposition (the other being María Corina Machado), released a homemade video yesterday voicing some complaints and stating that he will go to the Ministry of Interior and Justice office tomorrow to submit a petition and surrender:
Many things can be said about this man, but cowardice is not one of them. With this bold move, Leopoldo has achieved a remarkable feat: winning the hearts and minds of a largely unrepresented mass of Venezuelans opposing Nicolás Maduro and the miserable Chavista experiment. To date, I don’t think there’s any doubt about who the leader of the opposition in Venezuela is. The insipid Henrique Capriles, with his cowardice and sycophantic appeasement, has faced much criticism lately—and rightly so. At the peak of his popularity, he lacked the guts to challenge what was clearly a rigged election, and now his time has expired.
Leopoldo, on his part, acted as a kingmaker in the opposition primaries, giving leadership to Capriles, before becoming his most powerful ally in the presidential race against Hugo Chávez. But that alliance too has faded as Voluntad Popular, Leopoldo’s political party, made significant strides to become a viable national political platform. Leopoldo has also joined forces with María Corina Machado, who received the most votes in the congressional elections and is by far the most eloquent of the three.
So, what will Maduro do with this hot potato now? Is Maduro ready to end his last shred of legitimacy by imprisoning Leopoldo on false charges? Is he REALLY that stupid? One would think that the Cuban puppeteers aren’t, but we’ll see. Leopoldo’s arrest in front of the world will create far more problems for Chavismo than it will solve. It could serve as a catalyst for more protests. It will generate a lot of attention, scrutiny, and criticism. He has already galvanized the people. There’s a growing belief among those I’ve spoken with in Venezuela over the past hours: “With this type of leader, we can go somewhere.” People who were otherwise indifferent. Essentially, Leopoldo has confronted Chavismo with a defiant attitude of “we’re not afraid, we’re coming for you.” Rumor has it that Diosdado Cabello, one of the most powerful figures in Chavismo, has taken his family to Argentina. In any case, the potential reaction to Leopoldo’s arrest, both in Venezuela and abroad, is just one dimension. What if someone with Leopoldo’s leadership skills revolutionizes a prison population? Someone, as has been well-documented, with influence and power in the criminal underworld far beyond the walls of Venezuela’s prisons? Readers may recall when the regime arrested Carlos Melo a few years ago and the impact it had on the inmates of El Rodeo. Does Chavismo really want Leopoldo to form political alliances with the notorious pranes?
I think Leopoldo’s move is brilliant. It may seem foolish, but it’s quite the opposite, as Leopoldo has just cornered Chavismo. By doing so, he has gained a significant amount of goodwill and popularity that will put him in a favorable position with millions of people in the days to come. He has thrown a curveball, and it will be interesting to see how Chavismo reacts.