As soon as we learned about the flotilla of gasoline shipments from Iran heading to Venezuela, we said:
I suppose that @TareckPSUV and @VezaratNaft from #Iran are going to test @realDonaldTrump’s resolve with those gasoline shipments, huh? Cc @USTreasury
– Alek Boyd (@infodi0) May 17, 2020
The warnings and threats of retaliation from #Iran to the U.S. regarding potential interference with 5 gasoline shipments destined for #Venezuela are as credible as Jordan Goudreau’s attempt to oust Maduro #purefoolishness these #MMGs https://t.co/6dFKRom9wz
– Alek Boyd (@infodi0) May 18, 2020
There are so many unfounded nonsense statements about Venezuela at the moment that the simple and evident reality gets buried under a cacophony of “experts” opining on the matter. Not many of the so-called “experts,” mind you, have followed Venezuelan geopolitics for more than a couple of days, but one of the downsides of the Internet and social media is that anyone with an opinion, no matter how ignorant, can express it out there.
We knew those shipments would arrive unimpeded at Venezuelan ports. The sanctions regime imposed by the U.S. Treasury on the Maduro regime, in its current form, does not come close to effectively cutting off all maneuvers. For example, Rosneft was sanctioned, but Reliance was not. TNK was sanctioned, but Repsol and ENI were not. Cubametales was sanctioned and continues to regularly collect gasoline and crude shipments from Venezuela. These companies are absolutely mocking the administration of Donald Trump and its policy toward Venezuela, not to mention the activities of Alex Saab, Alex Betancourt, and Axel Capriles.
The Trump administration continues to support the wrong horse in this race, putting forth poorly formulated and implemented policies by officials who do not understand half of the problem. But Obama, and Bush before him, made similar mistakes.
Iran wrote the book on evading sanctions, and it has enough in that region of the world to give Uncle Sam the finger. The relationship between Iran and Chavismo began quite early in Hugo Chávez’s first term. Unlike the current hysteria, agreements on oil, petrochemical, and energy cooperation between Venezuela and Iran started back in 2001. Of course, there was no Twitter or Instapundits back then, ergo, there was no outrage over such bilateral agreements.
As Alirio Parra once told me, Iran’s oil company (NIOC) and PDVSA share similar stories in that productivity levels plummeted once the ever-growing number of “revolutionaries” took the reins. We have stated, and will reiterate, our belief that Iran is not in a position to fix Venezuela’s oil industry. Iran will not repair PDVSA’s decrepit refineries, nor will it increase its production. Presenting Iran’s NIOC as some sort of efficiency model in the oil industry has no basis in reality; therefore, any joint venture, cooperation agreement, etc. between NIOC and PDVSA will only yield the same results that have become the norm in these companies. Venezuela had the largest refinery complex in the world and produced more than enough gasoline, part of which was exported. It didn’t need Iran’s “expertise” for these achievements. But then Chavismo happened.
Chavismo has been in power since 1999. Since then, it has failed to maintain pre-Chavismo production levels of PDVSA by any measurable benchmark. The same can be said of NIOC since 1979. Who in their right mind, and on what basis, can believe that a partnership between these two poorly managed companies will suddenly ramp up production to pre-revolution levels?
But when it comes to disruption and destabilization, both Iran and Venezuela are world-class. Top of the league. Once again, protesting against this gasoline partnership makes no sense. The U.S. government has been aware of Chavismo’s optimal positioning for the ayatollahs for nearly two decades. This was no secret. Bilateral agreements were signed. Tareck el Aisami was appointed head of the identification office in Venezuela. Result? Abbas Hussein Harb and Ali Mohamad Saleh from Hezbollah obtained Venezuelan identity documents and passports. Indeed, Chavismo has maintained friendly relations and alliances with Colombia’s FARC narcoterrorists, with ETA from Spain, and has Vladimir Putin as one of its staunchest allies; why would it be any different with Iran or Hezbollah?
The gasoline flotilla needs to be evaluated for what it is: a propaganda exercise, a rather cheap and easy way for Venezuela and Iran to show how toothless the United States has become, even in its own backyard. In that, they have succeeded.
A nice gesture, as @AviacionV and @ArmadaFANB thanked on behalf of the #Venezuelan people by escorting the second Iranian ship #FOREST into #Venezuelan waters pic.twitter.com/LMtPh3FJuN
— Madelein García (@madeleintlSUR) May 25, 2020
The microphone diplomacy of Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, and Admiral Craig Faller belongs to the same category of bland assertions as the threats of retaliation from people like Bijan Zanganeh. There will be no war over the gasoline shipments. The U.S. Navy will not launch military attacks. Iran will continue to flaunt sanctions, just like Venezuela. Rogue elements will continue to exploit opportunities for quick enrichment. Hezbollah operatives in Venezuela, or those looking to capitalize on the partnership with Chavismo for any plans they might have, will remain calm and carry on with business as usual. Venezuela’s gold exports, and those involved in sending it to any convenient destination, will continue. Because there is another angle that needs to be considered: Putin.
Putin’s support for Bashar al-Assad (another friend of Chavismo) is public and notorious. Iran’s involvement in the Syrian conflict is equally notorious. The presence of Russian mercenaries (Wagner) and the Russian army/aircraft is as undeniable in Venezuela as it is in Syria, and has gone largely unnoticed in Washington. If there is anything to gain geopolitically for Putin, it is promoting the disruption of the established order to further undermine the U.S. preeminence as a superpower in the Latin American neighborhood; it is almost certain that Russian resources, official and otherwise, will be added to the cause.
The presence of Iran in Venezuela should have been countered years ago when none of these other factors/actors were particularly relevant. Now, the remedies must be surgical, strategic. Money flows must be interrupted. The recent notice from the Treasury to the shipping industry should include Venezuela, which should be placed on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list without delay. Those caught flaunting sanctions, anywhere in the world they operate, must be immediately included on the Treasury’s SDN list. FinCEN should send similar notices to all financial institutions conducting transactions with Venezuela. Since military action is not and never was an option, all available financial and political tools must be utilized by the U.S. government. The message must be unequivocal: deal with Venezuela at your own risk. Failure to implement this type of countermeasure is what has emboldened Chavismo. The current mess, it must be said, is largely the doing of the United States itself.