Ten days ago, I had a conversation with a source highly knowledgeable about bonds. They mentioned that some institutional investors were going to approach the courts to activate the acceleration clause of the 2034 bond due to payment default. Today, Reuters published news on this matter, citing a representative from a “creditor group” (attorney Mark Stancil from the Robbins Russell firm in Washington DC) who is seeking a payment of $1.5 billion. It remains unclear whom Stancil represents. However, I received names of individuals and funds that were believed to be involved. I sent emails requesting comments to Ravi Mehta (Pentwater Capital), Jorge Piedrahita, and Roberto Enserro (Macrosynergy Partners), Hans Humes (Greylock Capital), and Guillaume Fonkenell from Pharo Management.
Hans Humes responded, stating that Greylock formed a broad-based representative group of institutional investors that extends well beyond the specific 2034 bond group.
Piedrahita (a former employee of Torino Capital) suggested I reach out to Enserro, who did not reply. Macrosynergy is presenting a “Miranda Recovery Fund” to investors, described as “The goal of the Fund is to achieve capital appreciation with downside protection through the enforcement of creditor rights to avoid restructuring scenarios, when possible, with significant nominal cuts and the Fund’s improved negotiating position.”
Mehta did not respond. Fonkenell also did not reply.
It remains to be seen what will happen after January 10, 2019, when Nicolás Maduro‘s term ends. There is little hope for a government controlled by the opposition, and the chances that Chavismo will enact the necessary measures to lift sanctions, reactivate the economy, and create a suitable legal environment for welcoming foreign investment are slim, to say the least.