My Weekly Commentary
In light of the upcoming parliamentary elections, we can confidently say that the readers of Las Verdades de Miguel are eagerly awaiting our predictions. I emphasize this without any hint of arrogance; the trust of our followers is based on the accuracy of our information. Regardless of what others say, “crying does not kill the scoop.” There are polls to cater to every taste, and thus, when a survey becomes part of political propaganda, it loses its essence and authenticity. We are not on that line. As is customary, we present to you the likely outcomes of the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 26, 2010. These figures are based on surveys conducted by this weekly in a systematic manner over the last three quarters.
If there are modifications (which is likely) in some acceptances during the remainder of the campaign, such as in Anzoátegui, the Capital District, Miranda, Nueva Esparta, Portuguesa, Táchira, Trujillo, and Zulia, then the difference from these results would be a mere 3 deputies in favor of the Government. We have the following particular cases: In Anzoátegui, Sabino Zamora (PPT) maintains an option in Circuit One. In Caracas, the success of Aristóbulo is still uncertain, as he faces not only the opposition but also the “indifference” of the PSUV towards his candidacy (possibly due to internal conflicts within that party). In Miranda, Enrique Mendoza’s machinery reduces Jorge Amorín’s possibilities; his potential success would depend on what his party does that Sunday afternoon. In Nueva Esparta, the opposition leads with Orlando Ávila’s candidacy; he enjoys a strong level of acceptance, while his counterpart, Juan José Millán (who is currently leading) has a significantly higher rejection rate than Ávila. In Trujillo, Gilmer Viloria (PPT) is in the running, while in Táchira, Otto Parada’s option could increase the number of seats won by the Government. A similar situation could arise in Zulia with Mario Isea (PSUV), who might emerge victorious in Circuit Eight. Having explained the trends, I can assert that the revolutionary factor will not win 110 seats; this is a calculation from Miraflores similar to the 10 million during the 2006 campaign. Moreover, the strategy of Miraflores to imbue these elections with a plebiscite-like nature surprised the opposition, which initially focused its campaign on the errors made during the current Government’s term. It is quite likely that if they had “not stepped on the bait,” the opposition would have achieved results disastrous for the Executive. We still need to see if the Government will achieve equal success in its second plan reserved for Sunday afternoon during the elections. This maneuver is to stir its machinery in what we could call a late mobilization tactic, where the PSUV keeps its membership restrained and, once it knows the electoral trend, sends them out in droves in the afternoon to gather votes, reinvigorating almost empty polling places at that hour. This tactic was successfully implemented in the recent gubernatorial elections with the consent of the CNE, specifically in Sucre and Barinas, where the Government managed to turn the results around at the last moment. The question remains about the number of resources to allocate and whether the PSUV has overcome its ongoing disorganization. I don’t think the opposition will report fraud, as even relative results will favor them. Meanwhile, I don’t believe the final counts will catch the Government by surprise. A dissenting vote will not come from a desire to return to the past, but rather, it will predominantly be a punitive vote. I estimate that abstention will not exceed 50%, a figure that is acceptable, especially considering the growing discontent, the political demobilization of the people, and the confusion regarding the mentioned objectives.
ELECTIONS. The Government wins in 11 states and in indigenous representation: Anzoátegui, Apure, Aragua, Barinas, Delta Amacuro, Capital District, Guárico, Monagas, Portuguesa, Sucre, Trujillo, and Yaracuy. The Opposition triumphs in 7 regions: Amazonas, Carabobo, Lara, Mérida, Miranda, Táchira, and Zulia. The results are even in 5 states: Bolívar, Cojedes, Falcón, Nueva Esparta, and Vargas. Detailed totals (percentages are calculated based on the number of seats in the AN): Government: 30 by List + 61 nominal + 2 indigenous = 93 deputies (56.4%). Opposition: 22 by list + 49 nominal + 1 indigenous = 72 (43.6%). Amazonas: List: Government: José Gregorio Mirabal. Opposition: Nirma Guaruya. Nominal: Opposition: Julio Igarza. Anzoátegui: List: Government: Earle Herrera. Opposition: Antonio Barreto. Nominal: Government: Roberto Rojas, Omar Medina, Cristina Sifontes, and Daniel Hernández. Opposition: Jesús Paraqueima and Marcos Figueroa. Apure: List: Government: Aníbal Espejo and Cristóbal Jiménez. Nominal: Government: Orlando Zambrano, Juan García, and Jhonny Salgueiro. Aragua: List: Government: Douglas Gómez. Opposition: Ismael García. Nominal: Government: Juan Carlos Luna, María Gutt, Rosa León, Carlos Escarrá, and Soraya Roye. Opposition: Jesús Castillo. Barinas: List: Ana Aurora Morales. Opposition: Julio César Reyes. Nominal: Government: Eduardo Lima, Maigualida Santana, and Zulay Martínez. Opposition: Fernando Monsalve. Bolívar: List: Government: José Ramón Rivero. Opposition: Andrés Velásquez. Nominal: Government: Tito Oviedo, Nancy Ascencio, and Ornella Arbeláez. Opposition: Gledis Barreto, Antonio Rojas Suárez, and Pastora Medina. Carabobo: List: Government: Francisco Ameliach. Opposition: Deyalitza Aray. Nominal: Government: Miriam Pérez and Saúl Ortega. Opposition: Vestalia Sampedro, Cocchiola Michele, Levis Mendoza, Julio Castillo, and Noe Mujica. Cojedes: List: Government: Erika Farías. Opposition: Leidys Fernández. Nominal: Government: Alejandro Villanueva. Opposition: Alexander Mireles. Delta Amacuro: List: Government: Henry Hernández and Yelitza Santaella. Nominal: Government: Alfredo Rojas and Loa Tamaronis. Capital District: List: Government: Cilia Flores. Opposition: Stalin González. Nominal: Government: Freddy Bernal, Robert Serra, Jesús Farías, Darío Vivas, and Juan Carlos Alemán. Opposition: Iván Olivares and Richard Blanco. Falcón: List: Government: Fernando Soto. Opposition: Miguel Castejón. Nominal: Government: Jesús Montilla and Álvaro Yánez. Opposition: Elisanower Depool and Gregorio Graterol. Guárico: List: Government: Oscar Figuera. Opposition: José Albornoz. Nominal: Government: Jesús Cepeda and Roger Cordero. Opposition: Lenny Manuit. Lara: List: Government: Luis Reyes. Opposition: Rafael Uzcátegui and Alfredo Ramos. Nominal: Government: Alexander Torrealba, Isabel Lameda, and Julio Chávez. Opposition: Simón Calzadilla, Julio Anzola, Eduardo Gómez Sigala, and Pedro Alcántara. Mérida: List: Opposition: William Dávila and Jesús Barrios. Nominal: Government: Ramón Lobo. Opposition: Jesús Rondón, Carlos Ramos, and Omar Lares. Miranda: List: Government: Héctor Navarro. Opposition: Josefina Baldo and William Ojeda. Nominal: Government: Aurora Morales, Modesto Ruiz, and Claudio Román. Opposition: María Corina Machado, Enrique Mendoza, Juan Carlos Caldera, Julio Borges, Gabriel Puertas, and Freddy Camacaro. Monagas: List: Government: Diosdado Cabello. Nominal: Government: María Aranguren, Orángel López, and Jesús Domínguez. Opposition: Otto Gebauer. Nueva Esparta: List: Government: William Fariñas. Opposition: Tobías Bolívar. Nominal: Government: Juan José Millán. Opposition: Morel Rodríguez Rojas. Portuguesa: List: Government: Blanca Eekhout. Nominal: Government: Silvio Mora, Enzo Cavallo Russo, and Nelson Escobar. Opposition: Bella Petrizzo. Sucre: List: Government: Luis Acuña and Amanda Giménez. Nominal: Government: Erick Mago, Algencio Monasterios, José Maestre, and Yaritza Vallenilla. Táchira: List: Government: Iris Varela. Opposition: Haydee Useche. Nominal: Government: Antonio Barazarte. Opposition: Leomagno Flores, Gabino Paz, Edgar Contreras, and Miguel Ángel Rodríguez. Trujillo: List: Government: María Noguera and Manuel Briceño. Nominal: Government: Christian Zerpa and José Morales. Opposition: Francisco Montilla. Vargas: List: Government: Simón Escalona. Opposition: Bernardo Guerra. Nominal: Government: Gladys Requena. Opposition: José Manuel Olivares. Yaracuy: List: Government: Braulio Álvarez and Haydee Huérfano. Nominal: Government: Néstor León Heredia, Yorman Aular, and Carlos Gamarra. Zulia: List: Government: Francisco Arias. Opposition: Omar Barboza and Lis María Márquez. Nominal: Government: Renny Mavares, Jhony Bracho, Enmanuel Pulgar, and Lisandro Cabello. Opposition (8): Marisela Reverol, William Barrientos, Tomás Guanipa, Enrique Márquez, Elías Mata, Julio Montoya, Mervin Méndez, and Freddy Paz. Indigenous Representation: Nominal: Government (2) and Opposition (1).
SINGULARITY. After the 26S, the PPT fraction will be significantly reduced and a nearly extinct party will come back to life thanks to Henry Ramos’s handling of the MUD slate. The upcoming AN promises to be a bloody battlefield regarding political definitions. Its leadership will confront seasoned politicians from the IV Republic. It is likely that Diosdado Cabello or Arias Cárdenas will assume the presidency of the new AN. The Opposition will demand its presence within and in the formation of committees. There will be chaos.