Yesterday, Fanny Kertzman and I published an article in the magazine Semana regarding the internal political dynamics of chavismo:
When Hugo Chávez faced the imminent possibility of his death, he carefully analyzed with his brothers Fidel and Raul Castro who would be his successor. They leaned towards Nicolás Maduro, a loyal giant, semi-literate, not very bright, and someone who always says yes. He was the path to continue handing over Venezuela’s sovereignty to Cuba. However, they put all their eggs in one basket and made a mistake: Maduro, a civilian, doesn’t have any real influence over the troops, in contrast to Diosdado Cabello, who is currently the president of the National Assembly and is emerging as his clearest contender.
With Chávez’s disappearance, who acted as a buffer, it’s only a matter of time before Cabello orchestrates some sort of coup to free himself from Cuban influence. Cabello never shared Chávez’s servile attitude toward Fidel Castro. He rarely traveled to Cuba and resents taking orders from that country.