The challenge with Venezuela lies in prioritizing its various realities. It is a country “governed” by a group of individuals who have a flexible stance towards the type of criminality that would collapse any government subjected to the rule of law and institutional independence. The relationship between Chavismo and the narcoterrorist groups from Colombia (FARC, ELN, etc.) is well documented. The late Hugo Chávez was vocal about his sympathies with Colombia’s state enemies, and his successor mirrors this sentiment. One resulting reality is that Venezuela has become a base of operations for various drug cartels. The type of income generated from such activities, in a country as corrupt as Venezuela, ensures a certain level of functionality. When factions within Chavismo, for whatever reason, become impatient or intolerant towards the Colombian drug cartels operating in Venezuela, conflicts arise, such as the one in Apure.
Behind drug trafficking lies rampant corruption, unchecked and state-sponsored. It could be argued that there isn’t a single anti-corruption official within the upper echelons of Chavista power. The violence bred by the complete absence of effective law enforcement rarely impacts these officials personally. They live in well-protected bubbles, entirely isolated from the consequences of their fluid stance on criminality. Thus, Maduro has nothing to fear from the drug lords who have been given ample space to operate. Maduro’s favored associate is a Colombian “entrepreneur” (Alex Saab) whose partner lives under a false identity due to a 15-year drug trafficking conviction. Has this small fact in any way hindered Saab? Can anyone reasonably argue that Maduro is ignorant of Saab’s long-standing past?
Then, there’s the reality of the humanitarian crisis. The latest report from the International Rescue Committee states that “… the deterioration of conditions has led over 5.6 million Venezuelans to leave their country, making it the second-largest external displacement crisis in the world, only after Syria. Inside Venezuela, humanitarian needs continue to deepen, with a 26% contraction in the economy during 2020 and 7 million people in need.”
We would argue that the “deterioration of conditions” is simply the direct and primary consequence of Chavismo’s attitude towards corruption. Why? Because the opportunity for stealing public resources has never been frowned upon by Chavistas. It doesn’t matter if the theft is big or small. Locally, regionally, nationally, or internationally, whenever there is an opportunity, Chavismo is sure to find willing partners to plunder the state. The assault on public funds has been so extensive that the resulting scarcity of most basic food items has led nearly 20% of Venezuelans to decide that leaving is a better option than staying.
People are not fleeing due to the momentary conflict in Apure, or because El Coqui’s gang is showering bullets on Maduro’s Praetorian forces in the slums of west Caracas. They are fleeing because they are hungry, because there are no prospects for improvement in their fortunes, because jobs haven’t been created in decades, and because Venezuela is a failed state. It is a failed state because the ruling elite made it that way. Chávez was not forced by anyone into alliances that were/are entirely detrimental to Venezuelans in general. No one imposed FARC and ELN on Chávez. No one urged him to kneel before Fidel Castro and his parasitic dictatorship. Certainly, no U.S. government – which for a good decade and a half labeled Chavismo as noise – handed him over to Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin with a note saying, “here’s a servant ready for your geopolitical games.”
Since coming to power, Chavismo has squandered more than 1.5 trillion dollars. The responsibility for such reckless neglect in managing state resources rests squarely and solely on the shoulders of Chavismo. While the irresponsible control of this wealth has been a defining feature since 1999, it is equally accurate to say that many institutions supposedly operating under strict anti-money laundering and anti-corruption guidelines in the developed world had tickets to that party. The cliché that, for a Chavista, a corruption opportunity should never be wasted applies just as much to bankers worldwide: not a single dollar of corruption profits should go to waste.
Then, of course, there’s politics. Maduro is the interlocutor, the main man, who commands and controls at least parts of the Chavista state. The same man who turned a blind eye, for example, to the drug trafficking activities of his own nephews. Taking a page from the Cuban playbook, Chavismo claims that every last issue and shortcoming in Venezuela is due to the sanctions imposed in the recent past: “it’s an embargo!” they cry. Sanctions or not, little happens regarding the growing dependence on Russia, China, and Turkey, or the endless energy gifts flowing to Cuba. Somehow, the billions given to Cuba never made it into Chavismo’s “unrealized profits due to the embargo” tally.
Chavismo is blessed with the best opposition any ruling gang could hope for. Through corruption, it has co-opted all enemies and political parties. Once this is achieved, they have the numbers on everyone. To make matters worse, Venezuela no longer has an independent and functioning judiciary; rather, it has an indescribable system to punish political or financial opponents at will. Redress in any given issue is whatever the Chavistas decide it to be. Effectively, Chavismo embodies subjective rule of law.
To conclude this triad, there is PDVSA. Like the case of the opposition, it serves as the best money-laundering tool ever devised. With international operations, myriad bank accounts spread across the globe, and drug lords at the helm, it is the proverbial endless source of wealth. PDVSA laughed at the U.S. Treasury sanctions and can continue to operate and do business at the current pace or at a reduced one forever. Maduro knows this fact well.
The Maduro who will receive European electoral observers and “accept” the electoral conditions imposed by a desperate U.S. State Department holds all the cards. There is nothing, no imposition or sanction that the Biden administration can impose on Maduro that will make him move one way or another. The same applies to the international coalition that once sided with a nullity called Juan Guaidó. All that is left for them are carrots. The only thing that can be attempted in the current dilemma is appealing to Maduro’s “goodness” with promises of fantastic business opportunities and the restoration of diplomatic and political relations, which in turn would forever consolidate Chavismo.
It has been said that political cycles, revolutions, etc., have indeterminate timelines. To reach some type of agreement with them, negotiations must necessarily include the ruling clique. When that ruling clique is made up of lawless thugs opposed to law and order, justice, democracy, binding agreements, and independent courts, there are few chances to reach a solution that isn’t wholly to their liking. Because it must be said, no one considers the alternative, which is to remove Chavismo by force.
This is a reality that most seem to have overlooked regarding Venezuela.
The Biden administration, which remains the only party investing some interest/resources to “help the situation,” has not deviated from the policies formulated and imposed by Donald Trump. It continues to recognize a false leader and entertain the fantasies of deranged and illegitimate opposition politicians. It also has to deal with the prospect of losing the House next year and facing retaliation for what Democrats did to Trump. In such a scenario, Venezuela falls behind in the hierarchical order of considerations. Maduro knows this as well, and he has shown remarkable skill in waiting for his moment.