London, 1.7.13 – There’s uncertainty about whether the swearing-in will happen on the 10th. Some debate whether article X can be interpreted in different ways. Others discuss whether the president of the assembly will take over, or if “power” remains with the vice president. Concerns arise about the “military wing,” allegedly anti-Castro, rejecting deals imposed from Havana orchestrated by the “civil wing” once the leader passes away. Speculation surrounds whether the acting vice president has a chance against Capriles or if Capriles is the chosen one. Additionally, there are discussions about Henri Falcon, the economic problems potentially ending the relationship between chavismo and the public. Questions also hint that the acting vice president might restore relations with the U.S., whether there will be a devaluation, changes in currency policies, temporary absence, or total absence, along with constitutional formalities…
Clearly perceived from a rational and impartial distance is that chavismo, without Hugo Chavez, holds all the cards. The official opposition, meaning MUD, lacks any significant influence on Venezuela’s immediate future, except possibly adopting a collaborative stance in the upcoming undecided elections. If they do, which they likely will, it will provide a necessary veneer of legitimacy to a process that has been rigged from the start. Regardless of the chosen outcome, the chavista regime has already forfeited its claim to democratic credentials with any degree of credibility. The most astonishing aspect of this unfortunate situation is that the opposition seems to have been coerced into a silence pact regarding crucial matters, such as the health of the chief public servant and his ability to perform the role for which he was elected.
This is a shameful state of affairs. Venezuela, along with its brave people, is merely a Cuban colony. A fusion of criminal cartels controls all public power and finances. In a country subjected to the blackmail of those managing oil revenues, it becomes impossible to harbor hopes distinct from those of the person wielding and executing power, namely chavismo.
All speculation is in vain. What chavismo wants to happen will happen. Nothing more, nothing less. Neither of the professional commentators has the slightest idea of what’s being concocted, as none have a direct line with Havana or those making decisions within chavismo.
The physical disappearance of the coup leader will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences impacting many, both inside and outside Venezuela. In the absence of a unifying element, it’s likely that the hyenas lurking in the shadow of the leader will start to size up for a split of the spoils, reminiscent of Reservoir Dogs. Another interpretation is that chavismo, understood as a union of criminals around a leader who not only allowed but encouraged the accumulation of wealth and power, will continue to govern and benefit from power in Venezuela at will. Some may be devoured, and others may emerge, but the overall state of affairs won’t change significantly with Hugo Chavez’s death.
Chavismo, like Peronism, is here to stay.