Sooner rather than later, Gustavo Petro will have to put aside the ambiguity he has maintained regarding his position and define whether he views Russia merely as a trading partner or if, on the contrary, his interests extend further and he aspires for it to be a strategic ally.
Despite the strong condemnation from most Western countries regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, several countries in Latin America have adopted a neutral stance that, in the case of Colombia, translates into a difficult-to-define ambiguity. Indeed, Gustavo Petro, unlike his predecessor Iván Duque, neither condemns Russia nor offers it direct support. This contrasts sharply with his denouncement of other international conflicts.
The reason for such indecision seems to stem from Petro’s interest in preserving Colombia’s position with the West while simultaneously maintaining ties with Russia to secure entry into BRICS and align with a multipolar world order.
These are part of the conclusions from a report based on research conducted by María Alejandra Ibarra, Daniela Rueda, Carolina González, and Daniel Poveda for Colombia Risk Analysis, titled “Relations between Colombia and Russia: local influence and perceptions”, which analyzes the relationship between Latin America and Russia, with an emphasis on the Colombian case.
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Unsustainable Ambiguity
In light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Gustavo Petro has taken a neutral position that veers towards ambiguity.
This indecision from the Neogranadine leader, according to researchers, will be hard to maintain as Russia seeks to diversify its alliances with Colombia. This vagueness could conclude in 2026 if a new right-wing or center-right government takes over.
While Russian-Colombian relations have been limited and there has been no evidence of Russian involvement in hostilities or espionage activities, concerns persist regarding its marked presence in Venezuela.
As events unfold, Gustavo Petro will need to clearly establish his position towards Moscow, meaning defining his foreign policy on this matter and outlining the profile of relations between Colombia and Russia. This remains to be seen because with the end of this term approaching in 2026, a new government with a completely opposite tendency could emerge.
A future right-wing or center-right government that pivots Colombia’s interests towards BRICS could undermine Colombia’s credibility as a commercial and strategic partner with Russia, India, and Brazil. This situation could also generate uncertainty among investors and trade partners for whom consistency and long-term commitment are crucial.
The Future of Colombia-Russia Relations
The researchers also analyze local perceptions of Russian influence in Colombia, which include accusations of political interference and cyberattacks, as well as the modest trade relationship between both countries.
The report also touches on the future of Colombia-Russia relations, Colombia’s accession to BRICS, and the consequences of a growing rapprochement with China. It highlights the significant obstacles they face, although greater cooperation has the potential to offer economic and strategic opportunities.
In any case, the report does not overlook the negative image of Russia in the West, which influences global diplomacy and, consequently, Colombian public opinion. It warns that a closer engagement with Moscow could encounter strong internal resistance. This could hinder the advancement of Gustavo Petro’s agenda or, conversely, serve as a political leverage.
Colombian Crossroads
In this context, the report warns that Colombia faces a crossroads, as defining a coherent foreign policy is not just an option but a necessity.
The research estimates that strategic clarity will determine the government’s ability to safeguard national interests, strengthen its position in the global economy, and maintain international credibility. It establishes that, without a clear direction, Colombia risks suffering diplomatic setbacks and long-term consequences in its role within the international order.
They conclude that while direct Russian influence is limited, the absence of a clear Colombian foreign policy creates uncertainty.
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