U.S. government officials Juan González, Jimmy Story, and Roger Carstens officially traveled to Venezuela over the weekend to speak with Nicolás Maduro. Carstens had previously been in Caracas in early December to discuss the CITGO 6. People seem surprised by what they perceive as a shift in opinion from the White House, overlooking that Carstens and Bill Richardson had already unofficially visited Maduro. The invasion of Vladimir Putin in Ukraine spurred this initiative; however, the Biden administration’s calculations regarding Venezuela remain flawed.
Indeed, Maduro should have been the U.S. government’s preferred interlocutor all along, but betting on a reversal of the Venezuela-Russia/Maduro-Putin relationship at this moment—on the promise of sanction relief—is as stubborn as betting on Juan Guaidó.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has made it abundantly clear that the U.S. no longer possesses the persuasive powers and ability to dictate terms. Sanctions failed to oust Maduro, let alone impact Putin, who continues to challenge the West and threatens unprecedented escalations. Maduro is not going to jeopardize his relationship with someone as helpful, resourceful, and determined as his nostalgic Soviet ally.
Neither President Biden nor his State Department are in a position to make demands in Venezuela. Maduro has survived everything thrown at him, and with current oil prices, he is doing phenomenally well. He was never weakened by U.S. measures. PDVSA’s oil has remained in flow to international markets, largely thanks to Putin’s support. In fact, Maduro showcased Trump’s misguided agenda to completely eliminate the opposition and its leader.
It’s highly likely that a detailed summary of that meeting and the demands/promises made by González, Story, and Carstens was sent to Lavrov or Sechin. It is very unlikely that Maduro will agree to anything with the Biden administration. If anything, he is in an even stronger position considering Putin’s behavior. Maduro will not betray Putin, whose steadfast support—since the Treasury imposed sanctions on PDVSA and Venezuelan officials—has become a lifeline.
The State Department couldn’t even control its opposition puppets. It has far less chance of controlling Maduro, who has outmaneuvered all his political enemies since 2013. Maduro will push for a tough negotiation. CITGO will be his primary demand, in order to commit to fulfilling financial obligations to bondholders and, perhaps equally importantly, to deprive the opposition of cash to operate internationally. There is no sense of urgency among Carlos Vecchio and Leopoldo López to return to negotiated talks while CITGO is under their irresponsible control.
On the other hand, Maduro has up to 30 million barrels of oil in storage. Furthermore, Chevron has almost all but received a Treasury license to resume full operations in Venezuela. Other companies such as Repsol, ENI, Tipco, etc., are likely to follow suit. With the very tangible possibility of another oil boom, Maduro is once again the winner. The opposition becomes particularly frustrated for Chavismo during times of scarcity. When Hugo Chávez was throwing money around, the opposition’s leadership and their financial backers were all very content and quiet.