Monitoring Latin American currencies against the Canadian dollar (CAD) can offer a clearer perspective compared to the US dollar (USD). The USD serves as the world’s reserve currency and often reflects global risk tolerance. In times of instability, investors flock to greenbacks. The CAD, conversely, represents a stable and developed, yet resource-dependent economy, making it an apt comparison for Latin American currencies, effectively filtering out much of the USD-related noise.
Historically, the Colombian peso (COP) has followed trends similar to other regional currencies like the Peruvian nuevo sol and the Chilean peso.
The initial chart illustrates currency performance against the CAD from January 1, 2010, to October 1, 2014. Here, the Colombian peso (COP) is represented by the red dotted line, with Peru in green, Mexico in navy blue, and Chile in fuchsia. Towards the top, the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso are depicted with solid red and purple lines, showcasing their devaluation trends.
In contrast, here’s how these currencies have performed over the last year:
In this period, Argentina has joined Peru and Chile in actually appreciating against the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, Mexico is showing signs of weakening, and Colombia is now mirroring Brazil in a significant and painful devaluation. Both nations, major oil producers, once boasted state-controlled companies as market favorites but now seem to be experiencing a harsh economic reversal post-2011.
The key takeaway:
The 5-year chart indicates that Colombia has significantly diverged from its usual counterparts and is experiencing a substantial devaluation.
For me, as a consumer of Colombian Harina P.A.N. precooked corn flour in Canada, I have noticed that the price for a kilogram has decreased from CAD 4 to CAD 3.3 over the past year.
Based on data from 2014, it’s likely that Colombia will gain a competitive edge in the production of other similar commodities. Upcoming coca production reports may indicate a surge in Colombian output.