According to a report from Panampost, Jimmy Story has informed Juan Guaidó about the new Venezuela policy from President Joe Biden/Department of State. If true (a big if), it amounts to an ultimatum like “you have until December 1 to fix your issues.” I will ask Ambassador Story and will update here if a response is received. But what if it’s indeed true? Shall we speculate?
Juan Guaidó was never going to accomplish anything substantial. On January 10, 2019, I attended a meeting in Washington with State Department officials responsible for Venezuela. Before we sat down, the presiding official stated unequivocally, “we like Leopoldo.” This comment was made almost two weeks BEFORE Guaidó “decided” – with the backing of the State Department – to declare himself “interim president” in the streets. Everything was cooked up by officials who said “we like Leopoldo,” and it was evident. Like all emblematic projects involving Leopoldo López, Guaidó’s “presidency” and his plan for “cease of usurpation, transitional government, and free elections” have been a spectacular failure. I remember thinking, “how can I respond to that? What can I say to someone who believes Leopoldo López is an acceptable solution for Chavismo?”
The State managed to get over 50 nations to align with its policy, and all they obtained in return was to strengthen Nicolás Maduro’s control. In a subsequent farce (April 30, 2019), this time also involving Donald Trump’s National Security Council, a “coup against Maduro” was orchestrated. The mastermind was – once again – López. The officials who said “we like Leopoldo” bought into his crazy plan, aimed at overthrowing Maduro, with the strategic and critical assistance of Maduro’s Supreme Court Chief, Maduro’s Defense Minister, and one of Maduro’s most trusted bolichicos. However, not everything was lost -for López-. He left house arrest that day and took refuge in the Spanish Embassy in Caracas, from where he later departed Venezuela.
Regardless of the location, López managed to install his puppets everywhere. With the unconditional support of the “we like Leopoldo” officials, key collaborators of López were given strategic positions in CITGO, in Washington, Madrid, London, and placed in “asset recovery control,” “bondholder negotiations,” and multilateral roles. As a master puppeteer, López positioned his people where he wanted, with Guaidó being the first among them. But none of that would change the reality on the streets of Caracas or within Venezuelan borders, where neither he nor his increasingly reduced base of admirers held any control.
Trump was never going to repeat his previous approach, that was as clear as Guaidó’s prospects. The Biden administration finds itself in a situation it did not create, having to deal with a policy shaped by “we like Leopoldo” officials devoid of the most basic skepticism. In Venezuela, no “opposition” politician can honestly claim to speak for everyone. López, and this is a widely known fact, is possibly – alongside Diosdado and perhaps Jorge Rodríguez – the most toxic political figure in Venezuela. Nonetheless, Trump’s officials decided he was the choice, but what informed that decision? Lobbying, of course, but was there any substance behind the nonsense?
Neither Guaidó nor his master deserve support of any kind. They will be remembered as the two fools who squandered the goodwill and political backing of over 50 nations, wasting a precious opportunity that is unlikely to present itself again. These days, López travels the world as if he, not Guaidó, were the true “interim president” of Venezuela. It is undoubtedly the closest he has come to real power, and the idea of what a real presidency would bring must cloud every waking moment for López. However, the question of whom he and Guaidó represent remains as relevant as ever, regardless of what has been stated in Panampost.
* In Guaidó / López / “we like Leopoldo,” officials mean that “fix the issues” involves participating in elections where Maduro will still have control, returning some of the assets (CITGO) received from the U.S. government, and accepting a sort of coexistence designated by Chavismo. In exchange, Guaidó/López will travel the world lobbying for Maduro, actively seeking: a) the lifting of all Treasury sanctions, and b) immunity for all their friends (Raúl Gorrín, Alejandro Betancourt, Francisco Convit, Luis and Ignacio Oberto, Francisco Morillo, Alex Saab, Mauro Libi, Julio Herrera Velutini, etc., etc., etc.).