London – There has been a lot of controversy recently regarding Hugo Chávez’s condition. In my view, whether from chavista officials, voices from the Venezuelan opposition, or observers, everything was manipulation or speculation. This remains true. The chavista leaders allowed into the inner circle (Diosdado, Maduro, Jaua, Arreaza, Ramírez) are simply saying whatever their Cuban contacts instruct them to say, while Venezuelan opposition politicians, the media, and other observers have no clue about the true state of Chávez’s condition, as no one has been able to penetrate the Castro regime’s control over related information.
Anyone who has ever been to Havana and spent time with dissidents knows that information control is arguably the only aspect where Cuba excels. Given this, the only thing left to do was wait for any information to emerge. Today, we learned that Chávez is back. That was to be expected. The question is whether he is well enough to continue with his ‘revolution’. I believe he is getting there.
When Fidel Castro fell ill, he was initially treated by Cuban doctors. What happened next? Real doctors were brought in, a proper diagnosis was made, and the right treatment was administered. The dictator is still around. I believe something similar happened with Chávez: his first surgery by Cubans was a complete disaster, after which genuinely competent doctors were recruited. At first, Chávez didn’t pay much attention to medical advice, but cancer eventually caught up with him.
In what seems to be yet another feat of extraordinary political calculation, a steroid-infused Chávez battled his cancer last year, long enough to achieve what he wanted: a landslide presidential victory in October. I think he had this all planned from the outset: win another term, further humiliate the opposition in the regional elections, go recover in Cuba for as long as necessary, and return to finally finish his “work”.
I’ve been speaking with family, friends, and sources in Venezuela over the past weeks and months. Everyone seems to agree that things have deteriorated dramatically lately. But what about the political situation? Chávez and his appointed officials continue to control all levers of power in the country. Everyone who matters does, and that is the only reality that those commenting on this topic need to consider.
It’s fine to reflect on the devaluation, how it affects local and international interests operating in Venezuela, Cuba’s bad photo-editing skills, the political persecution against powerless enemies, etc., but the truth is none of that really matters because Hugo is back, alive as we’re to believe, and in charge. No international partner will stop betting on and counting on Hugo; he has too much discretionary power for anyone to suddenly say “we’re out.” And internally, unfortunately, the situation is desperate: the opposition simply lacks strength; it’s the epitome of an old, toothless dog.
While Hugo has returned to the military hospital where he will be treated, he has nothing to fear: as long as he is alive, his reign and dominance over Venezuela will continue anyway. In the past, in almost every case that has threatened his control, Chávez has been conciliatory at first, only to then radicalize his positions even further. The devaluation may seem a radicalization to some, but it was a step that needed to be taken long ago. However, political opponents better be warned: Hugo is back!
The entry Hugo is back! first appeared on El Faro del Morro.