My Weekly Commentary
To the President. These brief lines are meant to express the popular sentiment regarding the thoughts of the people. First and foremost, I hope you recover swiftly from your health issues. Your absence has dramatically highlighted a misunderstanding attributed to you—that your presence is essential for the progress of the process. This belief has been bolstered by several sycophants, two of whom hide behind pseudonyms, one identified as Valderrama, recently revealed as a proponent of the outdated theory of the new man.
During your recovery, you may have noticed how the revolutionary process falters without you, especially since your mentor has been labeled as an “enlightened” figure. It must be disheartening for you to realize that your supporters do not resemble what you hoped for and that Sancho is not around. Now, as a good llanero, you must understand the language of the gamecocks; they are squawking in the henhouse, and preparations must be made for when the first rooster crows, as you well know that these cocky ones remain docile until one of them makes the first move. When war breaks out, it’s to the death. Comrade Chávez, the rooster is about to crow. I prefer to be blunt, so let me state my truths clearly: you must be aware that things aren’t looking good. You have ignored my warnings, even when I’ve often been ahead of events. I do not believe in the polls presented by failures. Do you remember when I predicted, back in December 2007, the outcome of those elections? More recently, regarding the parliamentary elections of 26S, I warned you that the PSUV would not reach a hundred deputies. In both cases, your pollsters misled you. I regret to say this candidly, but you’re too mature to let yourself be fooled. Now, hear this: while the opposition leadership may lack direction, if things continue as they are, without a complete turnaround, the revolution will lose the elections in 2012. It doesn’t matter who the opposition candidate is, and that’s the scary part, Comrade Chávez—you will lose. I’m saying it straightforwardly. I have never sought a position in the revolutionary Government, and you know that well. I’m convinced I make more impact from this platform, even though (to paraphrase the singer) my words may fade away like the evening, decapitated at dusk. Once, I mentioned that you contemplated not running in 2012, and look at the irony of history: dismissing your mortal condition over the years has made you your own executioner. Honestly, I believe you’ll have to make a superhuman effort to run for re-election, and I hope it won’t be in vain. I also suggested that your daughter María Gabriela could be your successor in the event you can’t continue temporarily; you should reconsider that idea. For now, none of your other disciples seem interested in power except for personal gain. You know better than I who has profited from the Government to amass fortunes. The revolution, my friend, risks turning into a vanguard of the recycled. We have glorified marginality, and so today we can’t bemoan if Venezuela resembles a vast prison. Comrade Chávez, against all odds and increasingly gathering enemies, I maintain that true revolution is possible as long as revolutionary will prevails over resentment and sordid interests. In the current scenario, there is no dangerous opposition; the real threat is the counter-revolution embedded in your surroundings. We shall see what dawns.
Operation Pincher. In a few months, the USA will designate Venezuela as a collaborator with international terrorism. The Republicans have launched a crusade to explain to Latin American Governments the extreme future sanctions against us.
Merchandise. For three weeks, former MLB player Sammy Sosa and his brother José Gregorio have been staying at the Meliá Caracas. The Sosas face issues with the DIM over a suspected gasoline smuggling operation detected in Punto Fijo. Orders from the Military House have been issued to process information claiming that the former slugger has used Chávez’s name to obtain contracts with Pdvsa. Apparently, José Gregorio Sosa is the one most entangled in this matter.
Changes. 1) If Chávez decides to replace Jaua, the first choice is JVR (is this a shift towards the center-left?). Other options include Ronald Blanco La Cruz, Alí Rodríguez, and Adán Chávez (the latter two having internships in Havana). Don’t forget to include María Gabriela Chávez on your lists. 2) José Gregorio Reyes (brother of the former governor of Lara) is likely to become the Minister of Food. A change in the Mppij is coming. SPECIES. The news about Marisabel Rodríguez’s trip to Havana is false. Another piece of misinformation involved JVR, with rumors circulating last weekend proposing he had suffered a heart attack. Upon investigation, a close associate of Rangel indicated he only experienced a heart arrhythmia without serious consequences.
Distribution. Things are also not going well for the opposition. It’s possible that primaries will not take place, and instead, efforts will be made for a consensus candidate. The goal is to ensure unitary support for AD, Copei, PJ, UNT, and PPT in various governorships. For now, this is how the cookie crumbles: AD: Mayor’s Office, Anzoátegui, Nueva Esparta, Apure, and Sucre; Copei: Táchira, Mérida, and Falcón. PJ: Miranda; UNT: Zulia; and PPT: Amazonas, Lara, and Monagas. María Corina Machado would run for the Mayor’s Office of Chacao, and Andrés Velásquez would represent the opposition for the governorship of Bolívar. This way, they would convince Capriles, Ledezma, Rosales, and even Pablo Pérez that they’re merely postponing their ambitions, as a consensus candidate could call for a Constituent Assembly and thereby the re-legitimization of powers in new elections anticipated for December 2014. Who will be the opposition candidate in December 2012? Answer: likely none of those currently in the primary pool. Candidates being considered are Gustavo Cisneros, Lorenzo Mendoza, and Ramón Guillermo Aveledo.
Struggles. Carlos Mata Figueroa wishes to remain minister and hopes to be ratified in his current position, counting on support from his surroundings in Barinas. Meanwhile, Henry Rangel seems poised to hinder his aspirations. By the way, the traditional Army Day parade was not held because the generals did not want the military display to occur without the presence of the head of the State. Another point: expectations are fading regarding Chávez’s attendance in Caracas to bestow honors on the newly promoted generals; it’s even likely he won’t preside over the July 5 ceremonies.
Ailment. The doctor referred to by some columnists as the “mysterious” physician who attended Chávez’s alleged cancer affliction is barinés oncologist Cono Gumina, president of the Venezuelan Anti-Cancer Society. In recent days, Gumina has been spotted frequently at the Barinas Governor’s office. Whether the claims about him being the specialist aware of Chávez’s rumored illness are true or false, only he knows; thus, he has the final say.
Division. With Chávez’s absence, disputes among the various red leaders and officials have intensified, as most believe that without Chávez, everyone is equal and has similar opportunities to assume command. In this context, the reopening of warfare by the current vice president, supported by the Mppij minister, aims to block Diosdado Cabello’s path. Meanwhile, in Zulia, Arias Cárdenas is gearing up to vie for the Vice Presidency. He currently runs a parallel government in Zulia with considerable resources. Arias feels disgruntled by what he views as Chávez’s failure to fulfill a promise made to him in the Military Academy courtyard—that he would manage service positions like, among others, Seniat, airports, Saime, Indepabis, and Social Security, enabling him to appoint trusted individuals.
Intrastate. Names like Domingo Amaro and Arístides Maza are reportedly behind the circulated allegations against a well-known insurance company. This forms part of the dirty war aimed at pushing that firm out of the market. See to believe.
Fishy. Where will the Bandagro bonds, valued at 100 million dollars held by the late monsignor Ignacio Velasco through a company he owned, end up? The former president of Electricidad de Caracas (a protégé of Alí Rodríguez) discovered a goldmine in his dealings with the Government, and likewise, Hernán Pérez Belisario (protected by the monk): a jab at the republic and another at the revolution. Another point: the billete parejo in a reasonless Venezuela, the colossal battle at the CNE—if it rains like this, who knows what else could happen (that’s what the android woman in Plaza Caracas must be thinking).
Unmentionable. The one who fits the description: an investigation is underway into an eastern governor who owns among other properties: 4 radio stations and a regional TV channel, a hotel, a bottled water company, 3 buildings in the Dominican Republic, 5 apartments in Spain, and 6 in Caracas; also, he is a partner in an airline.
SOS. The overflow of Lake Valencia seems imminent. The most challenging situation is at the Punta dike impacting the La Punta, Mata Redonda, and La Esmeralda urbanizations, as well as all surrounding neighborhoods. It’s coming; don’t say you weren’t warned.
Diaspora. Several journalists have resigned from Globovisión, including: Mariana Reyes, Katherin Hernández, William Echeverría, María Carolina Casado, Andrea Ramírez, Luis Arriaga, Mariana Gómez, Gabriela Perozo, Verioska Velazco, and Janelie Briceño Condado.