My Weekly Commentary
Almost unnoticed, Chávez’s clinical condition has dramatically altered the electoral landscape for 2012. Both organizations supporting his reelection and the opposition find themselves in shock. This situation was unexpected. There’s an underlying tension in the country, with Venezuela seemingly split in two, awaiting an outcome that no one dares to predict. Supporters of the President hope for a miracle in which he returns to political activities in pursuit of his reelection; however, it’s not far-fetched to suggest that Chávez may be the significant absentee in the upcoming electoral process.
Something unimaginable just a couple of months ago; not for those of us who analyzed this scenario well in advance, especially when considering the candidacy of his daughter María Gabriela. That option was dismissed by Chávez himself, though he alluded to the idea of two women competing for Miraflores on several occasions. Now, with Chávez undergoing strict medical treatment, who will gain his approval for the 2012 election, at least nominally succeeding him in Miraflores? Naturally, one might think a scramble for that reason is about to unfold. Chávez understands that his protégés are motivated more by financial necessities than by ideology, which clouds a potential return. None of his likely substitutes ensure the victory of Chavismo in 2012, unless this process reduces to the presence of two women vying for the presidency. Here lies the masterstroke, arising seemingly out of nowhere: two Marías: María Gabriela and María Corina, with the first having many possibilities if the opposition resists the second’s candidacy, as will likely occur. If María Gabriela is deemed unprepared for that position, what can one say when listening to María Corina? This poses a survival dilemma for both the Government and the opposition. Last week, an interesting meeting took place at Lorenzo Mendoza’s residence. The businessman had to make a decision regarding his immediate political future. Mendoza, excited by a variety of factors, including JVR and Luis Miquilena, considered running, but deduced that it wouldn’t be his candidacy that would allow him to negotiate with the Government regarding the fate of his companies; rather, the key to opening that door was María Corina Machado. For this reason, the deputy was invited to Lorenzo’s conclave. It was agreed to support her (it’s estimated that the group has 10 million dollars for the campaign), as long as she is willing to go even above the MUD. It’s worth noting that MCM will be a candidate in the presidential elections of 2012, an election that could present an unprecedented scenario where two women have the greatest chance to succeed Hugo Chávez in Miraflores (assuming he does not run for reelection). They would be two Marías: one, the candidate of the Patriotic Pole, and the other represented by María Corina. On one hand, Lorenzo Mendoza would ensure the survival of his businesses, while on the other, Chávez would gamble on the survival of the revolutionary process. Unity and the struggle of opposites. This would halt the advance of the bourgeoisie that has emerged under his Government, which is genuinely his main enemy, because Chávez knows that in the end, that new capitalist opulence would end up colluding with the class enemy. Meanwhile, from his sickbed, the leader of the revolutionary Government knows times are tough. Chávez lacks dialectics. He knows that his executive cabinet isn’t the best in the world, and a prolonged absence would spark paybacks among them. Chávez knows them intimately and distrusts all of them.
PETRÓLEOS I. With authorization from the general manager of Commerce and Supplies, Pdvsa assigned a shipment of crude oil to BMCC Indústria E Comércio LTDA, a Brazilian company in debt to the corporation. A memorandum sent by the Corporate Manager of International Finance to the Secretary of the Integral Marketing Committee states: We inform you that the company has debts with Pdvsa that must be paid; as long as payments are not made, it is recommended not to review financial statements or sales. Nevertheless, ignoring that recommendation, the management of Commerce and Supplies ordered the allocation of the crude shipment valued at over 50 million euros. Unofficially, we learned that a close relative of Lula Da Silva may have intervened on behalf of BMCC Indústria E Comércio LTDA. (Continues…)
COLLISION. The alleged forgery of a signature in the negotiation of a well-known hotel is on the verge of generating a conflict of interest at Banco Caroní. This incident has reopened old wounds in the banking institution due to past confrontations between the bank’s executives and a group of shareholders claiming to have been defrauded. Ghost companies, clinics, universities, and construction firms are the ingredients of this potentially explosive cocktail within this important financial institution in Guayana.
SCIENTIFIC. Regarding the President’s ailment, it’s pertinent to mention a cancer researcher who caused a stir some time ago by announcing that he was close to finding a vaccine against the affliction. This is Jacinto Convit, one of Venezuela’s most prestigious scientists, universally acknowledged; however, Convit, excommunicated by the international medical labs, was also rejected by IVIC when all resources necessary for his research were withdrawn. The stance taken by IVIC was heavily influenced by the current ambassador María Urbaneja, alleging that JC did not comply with the protocols required by that agency. However, this was called into question when foreign governments like France and Germany decided to support him. It’s likely that Convit will be nominated for the Nobel Prize in Medicine, not only for his achievements in cancer treatment but also for having developed a vaccine against leprosy.
WINNER. The Deputy Attorney General of the Republic may have secured an award for Venezuela by winning a lawsuit filed in Switzerland related to the Bandagro case against the nation. Antonio Guerrero Araujo was certified as a Venezuelan lawyer in this trial by the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes.
CORRELATION III. Regional leaders opposed to Chávez: Anzoátegui: Daniel Aro, Nelson Moreno, Rafael Vega, Vanessa Maita and Filiberto Martínez. Amazonas: César Sanguinetti, Antonio Graterol, Antonio Rumbos, Milagros Echenique, Ninfa Tividor and Rubén Montoya. Apure: Betty Suárez, Gladys Pantoja, Jairo Hidalgo and Morelis Narváez. Aragua: Elvis Amoroso, Alberto Mora, Alexis Zamora, Maritza Loreto and Miriam Pardo. Barinas: Antonio Albarrán, Nelson Montiel and Ramón Castillo. Bolívar: Ángel Marcano, David Medina, Irania Romero, José Ramón Rivero, Kamal Naim, Alejandro Valdez, Richard Rosas and Roselys Salazar. Carabobo. Flor García, John Ortiz, Lesbia Castillo, Héctor Agüero, Welklis Lozada and Thaer Hassan. Delta Amacuro: Loa Tamaronis, Luis Marín Mata, Luis Vargas and María Fátima Salazar. Falcón: Gisela Méndez, Jorge Luis Chirinos, Néstor Ocando, Ulises Mora, Wilfredo Robertis, Henry Ventura and Jesús Montilla. Lara: Luis Contreras, Iván Lugo, Blanca Romero, Miguel Valecillos, Jhonny Colmenares and Alexander Torrealba. Mérida: Antonio Santiago, Carmen Urdaneta, Freddy Medina, Guido Ochoa, Juan Carlos Quintero, Alexis Ramírez, Alexis Rodríguez, Alirio Lizcano, Manuel Molina, Mary Mora and Ramón Lobo. Miranda: Abraham Aparicio, Américo Mata, Diógenes Lara, Elenitza Guevara, Elio Serrano, Esther Madrid, Marlenys Contreras, Miguel Benavides, Miguel Mendoza, Sony Sánchez and Cruz Ortiz. Monagas: Marelys Pérez, Jesús Domínguez, Glen Alfaro, Julio Castillo, Orángel López, Pedro Silva and Ricaurte Leonett. Nueva Esparta: Abel Salazar, Anthony Coello, Brígido Arocha, Eudomar Mata, Gonzalo España, Junior Gómez, Luis Díaz, Luis Rodríguez, Natasha Núnez, Patricia Perasso and Víctor Tovar. Portuguesa: Virginia Delgado, Mirla Rojas, Nubia Cupare, Raiza Alfonso and Rubén Cortez. Sucre: Yaritza Vallenilla, Wilman Espinoza and Rommel Ugas. Táchira: Marina Rojas, Diego Vergara, Estrella Uribe, Jorge Medina, Macario Sandoval, Manuel Ramírez, Pedro Suárez and Vilma Vivas. Trujillo: Alfredo Barrios, Christian Zerpa, Fernando Solís, Gioconda Quevedo, Gregorio Briceño, Hiroshima Vásquez, José Morales, Manuel Briceño, Maribel Uzcátegui, Victoria Araujo and William Martorelli. Vargas: Agustín Camacho, Alexis Toledo, Arnaldo Moscoso and Patricia Toledo. Yaracuy: Santos Aguilar, Shirley Romero, Yorman Aular, Ángel Gamarra and Cruz Mora.
BROCCOLI. Last Saturday, Enrique Maestre, with a copy of “The Truths of Miguel,” ranted against the weekly publication. This took place at the expensive Meliá Caracas hotel, where at 10 AM, accompanied by three others, the Governor of Sucre, casually dressed in a checkered shirt and jacket, enjoyed a sumptuous breakfast (broccoli, rice, and chicken). He labeled our media outlet as trash, while passionately complaining about the loan processing, throwing his barbs at the monk Giordani. Maestre is the same individual struggling to manage the Sucre state, an entity where he faces the highest rejection.